When FRA will be an exact science?

[Benzerari]

Say you have done a fire risk assessment, for a given building, to what extent, can you tell the fire will not either kill or damage... in case fire will occur?

I mean in terms of percentage!

[Benzerari]

What I mean by that is; say some one may say, this can never be applied to fire safety. What about medical field? If a doctor says there is 70% chance a patient can either survive or dye... etc, why not the same principle mayn't be applied to fire safety? when saying there is 70% fire can or can not strike in this building...!

[Chris Houston]

Easy.  There is a 99% chance you are won't be injured from fire in any building.  Before and after, with or without a risk assessment.

[Benzerari]

Easy.  There is a 99% chance you are won't be injured from fire in any building.  Before and after, with or without a risk assessment.

In what basis, did you get 99% chance of none injury?

[Thomas Brookes]

I was once told the way to get to that sort of figure was to build out of stainless steel and don't let anyone move in.

[BB]

I've actually been sent plan drawings submitted by artictects which have consisted of rooms with no door openings indicated on the plans.

Very safe as people cannot enter/exit the rooms

Just an ideal world!!!!!!!!!

[Benzerari]

I've actually been sent plan drawings submitted by artictects which have consisted of rooms with no door openings indicated on the plans.

Very safe as people cannot enter/exit the rooms

Just an ideal world!!!!!!!!!

Even that wouldn't be safe enough, fire can strike from out side rather than from inside, just as an example: Annually in the U.S. there are more than 300,000 fires that originate in homes. In addition, nearly 10 percent of the land and over
one-third (42 million) of the homes in the U.S. today belong to the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). The WUI is used to refer to both areas where housing abuts heavily vegetated areas (interface) and those areas where houses and vegetation are intermingled (intermix). If current trends in housing continue, the WUI will grow rapidly.

By means fire may strike in any building and spread out to others... see the link below..., would FRA take into account that?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081115/ap_on_re_us/wildfires

[jokar]

An FRA will never make a premises safe.  The outcomes of the FRA may assist but there is always the human element to consider.

[Benzerari]

An FRA will never make a premises safe.  The outcomes of the FRA may assist but there is always the human element to consider.

What I mean is; to what extent (percentage), it could or couldn't be safe? I agree 100% safety, just doesn't exist

It seems probability and statistics don't apply to fire safety in that way, except from statistics figures that are compiled after fire events, and the question is still why? So many disciplines applying probability and statistics, why still aren’t they applicable to fire safety, to predict safety?

[Chris Houston]

Because there are too many vairables and because risk = liklihood + severity.

[Benzerari]

Because there are too many vairables and because risk = liklihood + severity.

That's what probability and statistics are for, even rigorousness is quantified with certain percentage ..., any business’s management and marketing risks can be quantified and/or predicted..., and so many disciplines dealing with so many variables and some with more than two degrees of variations...

[Chris Houston]

Because there are too many vairables and because risk = liklihood + severity.

That's what probability and statistics are for, even rigorousness is quantified with certain percentage ..., any business’s management and marketing risks can be quantified and/or predicted..., and so many disciplines dealing with so many variables and some with more than two degrees of variations...

I disagree.  Business is more complex than that and I don't think it is possible to put a numerical figure to everything.  Show me some examples of the percentages for the quality of the business management for your company, FireNet or some famous PLCs.  Life has many variables which are unknown.

[nearlythere]

Because fires are caused by human beings and because of the complexities and unpredictable and sometimes irrational behaviour of this animal one can never quantify the risk they pose to themselves and others.
It is probably easier to identify a pattern to falling raindrops.

[Benzerari]

Because there are too many vairables and because risk = liklihood + severity.

That's what probability and statistics are for, even rigorousness is quantified with certain percentage ..., any business’s management and marketing risks can be quantified and/or predicted..., and so many disciplines dealing with so many variables and some with more than two degrees of variations...

I disagree.  Business is more complex than that and I don't think it is possible to put a numerical figure to everything.  Show me some examples of the percentages for the quality of the business management for your company, FireNet or some famous PLCs.  Life has many variables which are unknown.

In any business, if the managers don't predict that more than 50% the business will be profitable, they wouldn't setup the business

[Fishy]

Say you have done a fire risk assessment, for a given building, to what extent, can you tell the fire will not either kill or damage... in case fire will occurs?

I mean in terms of percentage!

Never.  The most precise 'scientific' forms of risk assessment (e.g. Quantified Risk Assement) are not necessarily accurate.

The UK fire statistics for 2006 (the latest that are available) State that in 2006 there were 32,900 fires recorded in buildings other than dwellings.  Of these 21% were in private garages and sheds (buildings that don't require a fire risk assessment), so that leaves roughly 26,000 in buildings likely to be covered by the Fire Safety Order.  In the same period 37 people died in fires in buildings other than dwellings (i.e. on average 0.14% of fires in relevant non-domestic premises lead to death).

The regulatory impact assessment for the RR(FS)O admitted that it was difficult to predict the number of premises that the Order applied to in England & Wales, but estimated it as 2,153,140.

So... based on the 2006 statistics the average chances of having a fire in a premises in England & Wales coverd by the RR(FS)O is (conservatively, because the number of fires includes Scotland & N. Ireland) - roughly a 1% chance per year.  The average chances of anyone dying in a fire if you've got one of those premises is roughly 0.002% per premises per year.  Of course, risk doesn't even out like that, but the fact is that it is an extraordinarily unlikely probability!!!