Johno,
i don't think you're looking at it 'the wrong way', it's just that fire is complex.
try setting a sofa on fire with a fag-end. it is 'theoretically' impossible, that is to say only one attempt in 500 or 600 will even cause smouldering and of those only one or two will flame, even then prbably self-extiinguish. that leaves a 1:2000 chance of a developing fire. now one in two thousand are not odds you would want crossing the road are they?
I know of experiments attaching a cigarette to rubber tube and waving the glowing end around in petrol vapour, carefully monitored, can you set fire to petrol vapour by smoking, no. however, if you clicked a lighter, woof!
fires begin simply, although fewer children handle fire daily today than 50 years ago. the spread, as you suggest, should be predictable, but how many variables are there? Answer, too many!
Bob Fitzgerald, well known fire engineer from Worcester polytechnic Int. Mass. USA has a wonderfully practical take on this sort of thing.
Take a waste paper bin, put 'stuff' in it, but paper to act as 'item first ignited', ignite.
look at the growth; probably within a minute there will be a flame the size of the bin itself, it will then, probably, diminish. But, if there is some other, higher energy fuel, the flame height may increase, but for how long? The fuel is limited, will it touch surrounding material, will it 'spread'? He reasons, with evidence, that if the flame rising from the bin get to the size of a standing person, you have a fire that will spread.
The majority of potential fires self extinguish. The question that research has not yet answered to my knowledge is, "what makes the fire that will spread and do damge different from the fire that fails and self extinguishes; what is the defining characteristic?"