BWF fire door short video

[johnny99]

Hmmm,  (Thoughtful sound)

The Times once reported that there was a 1 in 909,000 chance of asteroid '2003 QQ47' striking the Earth with catastrophic consequences in 2014.  Should I be more worried about that happening than I am?

1 in 120,000,000 in a hotel or somewhere between 1 in 60,000,000 and 1 in 12,000,000 in my home .................. I think I'd be happy to take my chances in either of those two places tonight. 

Although I'm not sure if I would want to take the risk of crossing the road to get to the hotel.  Who knows, I may get struck by lightning (at odds of 10,000,000 to 1)

[CivvyFSO]

Thanks for the reality check.

If you like to play with odds... If you have £1 a week on the lottery, you are more likely to die in a fire that week than to win the jackpot. Yet we are all happy to put the occasional quid on. (Scottish excluded)

The thing with probabilites is that they are particularly easy to misrepresent, and for you as an individual you can pretty much ignore the risk of dying in your own home. But as an enforcing authority, or as the government, or as someone sitting on the committee of some british standard making a decision as to what is reasonable, those 340-350 deaths are quite significant.

Also those odds for dying in a fire are per night. So by the time you are 80 it is down to a 1 in 2200 chance that you will have died in a fire.

[kurnal]

The thing with probabilites is that they are particularly easy to misrepresent, and for you as an individual you can pretty much ignore the risk of dying in your own home. .....................................Also those odds for dying in a fire are per night. So by the time you are 80 it is down to a 1 in 2200 chance that you will have died in a fire.

Now then Civvy you are starting to sound like a politician.

Hard sums are not my forte but if I have reached the age of 80 then it is an absolute cert that I have NOT died in a fire

[Clevelandfire 3]

"For insurance purposes I have died in three consecutive pub fires" Al Murray Pub Landlord 2007 

[colin todd]

Kurnal. I always assumed that you had reached the age of 80. Civvy, I took five years as that is a reasonable period and reflects current standards. I also made sure it covered all deaths, not just those deliberately started. And you may feel that for certain deliberately started fires will not be ifluenced by the last few minutes duration of a door.

[CivvyFSO]

My argument was not about upgrading to current standards, merely pointing out some inaccuracies and misrepresentation of facts and figures.

Anyway, I think we have done this one to death.

[Davo]

Civvy

If the odds of dying overnight in a fire are X, then the odds of dying in a fire the night after (assuming you made it!) are still X.
Nothing has changed

If you worked out the risk of dying in a car accident for those exceeding 25K miles per year based on your methods, none of the drivers would live to see 60!!!


davo

ps why does anybody do the lottery? the odds of winning are

49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44  to 1  ie  10,297,000,000  to one

[CivvyFSO]

If the odds of dying in one night are 1 in 64,000,000, then the odds of dying in 2 nights are 2 in 64,000,000. I can see where you are coming from though, surviving one night does not increase your chance of dying the night after. It is the total chance of dying in the 2 nights we should be concerned with.

Your lottery odds are flawed too. It is approx 1 in 14,000,000. If you put 2 sets of numbers on (Akin to staying 2 nights in your home) that is a 2 in 14,000,000 chance.

For your benefit:-

The chance of getting the first number drawn is a 6 in 49 chance
if you get that then your second number has a 5 in 48 chance
if you get that then your third number has a 4 in 47 chance
and so on....

:-D

[Mr. P]

Anyway, I think we have done this one to death.

Is that in one night?

[kurnal]

If the odds of dying in one night are 1 in 64,000,000, then the odds of dying in 2 nights are 2 in 64,000,000.

Sounds a bit like the old James Bond theme "you only live twice".

[johnny99]

Apologies Kurnal, and with the greatest of respect may I interject as that's a little off thread.

I think you were possibly referring to 'Die Another Day' or that other well known Broccoli classic 'Dr No Intumescent Strips'.

[kurnal]

Very true Johnny99.
I was trying to point out that if you die on the the first nght then there aint much point in worrying about the second night.

But its time to stop digging I reckon and start writing my memoirs of double declutching on a reverse gate Dennis F8. I am banking on Toddy  eagerly snapping  up the the whole print run of the first edition.  He has already re-written the Home Office drill book on manouvering appliances  to add a mandatory commentary on ADB5 and the need to eat more carrots.

[Tom W]

With all of these odds being discussed about the chances of death from a fire in a "hotel"

It would be interesting to see what happens to those odds when you look at the odds when you are staying in a 1*,2*,3* and so on.

What does it do to the odds when you look purely at small B&Bs guest houses? (i don't mean to entice the B&B angry man back so i hope he doesn't see this!)

Also what happens to the odds when you look at the stats for "hotels" up norf and daaaan saaaaf?

Just thought i would throw that in 

[CivvyFSO]

I am sure it would alter the actual risk by quite a large amount, just at it would if you looked at the specific demographics of deaths in the home.

[jokar]

Why all this has been going on, has there been a fire in a Hotel, Guest house, hostel B&B.? If there has has anyone died or been injured?