BWF fire door short video

[CivvyFSO]

The maths is correct.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" 

So you stand by your comment that you are 10 times more likely to die in your own home? With the figures you supplied this seems to be not the case. My maths is there to be seen, feel free to point out where I have gone wrong.

My argument was never for more fire safety being required for the hotel trade, and Kurnals explanation of when strips and seals might be recommended is almost spot on in my eyes.

The 1 in a million tolerable risk thing doesn't seem to me to be quite as simple as you make out. HSE guidance seems to point towards that being relevant to any particular accident. i.e. A well maintained fire alarm somehow failing completely on the night it is required to perform is particularly unlikely, and if this happened, and people died due to this, it can be seen as an unfortunate accident providing that the 1 in a million criteria is met, and the HSE or FRS should identify it as an accident and act accordingly.

It surely does not mean for instance that if I own a shopping centre that expects 20 million people through its doors in a year, that 20 of those people can die without any repercussions to myself. If someone dies due to my poor fire safety, then regardless of the risk I should be prosecuted. Which is where my comment comes from about fire safety being there to cater for the extremely unlikely. It isn't aimed at protecting from any particular unlikely event, it is over and above the average requirement because many of these unlikely events will happen given time, and fire safety caters for this "as far is is reasonably practicable".

You are clearly a clever man, you have more letters after your name than I have in my name, but you sometimes seem to throw random numbers, comments and claims in which I think deserve qualification. I have many years left in the 'trade' and I will learn much more by dragging the facts out of you than just blindly believing everything you say.

[Clevelandfire 3]

Colin. The brigade are putting in smoke detectors in & around Middlesboro and have been doing so for years, ever since HFRAs and HFSCs were conceived infact. Again you are talking about domestic premises where people have the right to tell the fire brigade that they do not want them to come into their house to  put smoke detectors in. We are talking domestic premises where people are free to do as they choose and are masters of their own destiny. Fire safety legislation doesn't apply there. So whilst you are right in that more people die at home than in a hotel you can see immediately why that is. Im not asking for over the top precautions in hotels, but a certain standard must be maintained for obvious reasons. That however emcompasses other issues rather than the finer detailing of intumescent strips whose benefit may be minimal in the greater scheme of things.

[colin todd]

That however emcompasses other issues rather than the finer detailing of intumescent strips whose benefit may be minimal in the greater scheme of things.

Aha, I knew you would see sense.

[colin todd]

Civvy, Suggest you set out the maths again clearly, so that it can be subject to scrutiny

[CivvyFSO]

I suggest you go back and read it.

[colin todd]

Civvy, we in the modern fire and rescue service educate and inform, not give instructions and orders.

[Clevelandfire 3]

That however emcompasses other issues rather than the finer detailing of intumescent strips whose benefit may be minimal in the greater scheme of things.

Aha, I knew you would see sense.

Colin this is exactly why I get annoyed. I have never advocated that intumescent strips be fitted to existing fire doors on this thread. Come on lets play fair here please. One of my gripes with you Colin is that you keep referring to domestic premises and saying more people die from fire at home. Of course they do. I dont deny that. The reason is we dont enforce standards in domestic premises.And also thats why fire services are running around doing HFSCs. Thats why new houses have more stringent standards. So leave that aside. WLets talk about commercial premises. Educate and communicate. Civvy's mathematics seem perfectly sensible to me. Please read them again. If you can counter it with sensible argument Im always genuinely prepared to listen.

[colin todd]

Clevey, I thought you didnt get annoyed any more. Anyhow, i note you retired from the brigade a year ago, and hence I assume you are old enough to remember the 1960s and 1970s. You may remember research that was intended to help government with fire safety policy. It quite specifically compared the chance of dying from fire in different occupancies and compared the risk to the chance of dying at home in a dwelling. One very major study looked at schools, hospitals, hotels and of course dwellings. Statistically the risk of dying in a school was negligible. Hospitals are also very safe.

In the case of hotels, the risk was over 10 times that of a dwelling. Morally that was considered
to be wrong. The principle was this. You and mrs clevey could spend a night at home with your cocoa and a good book tucked up safely in bed. Or you could take mrs clevey to the middlesbrough hilton (were there such a thing). It was considered that by buying Paris H a new dress you should not be put at greater risk than if you hadnt bothered. Equally, you could set fire to your bed at home, and need not be protected against the consequences to you in a hotel so long as you dont kill anyone else.

Along came the rose and crown and the consequent FP Act. Further research specifically aimed at helping govt with policy  showed that the job was virtually done in keeping people as safe as they are at home, by adopting standards that we would laugh at now. Old style fire doors and no afd whatsoever.

Now you are many times safer in a hilton than at clevey towers. How much safer. Well you cant take 5 years and then one year and divide by two alas for civvy. But there are around 60 million people in the uk, and one dies per day in a dwelling fire. So your chance of dying from fire during a 24 hour period at clevey towers is around 1 in 60 million. Accordingly I would bet a years salary that you will be alive tomorrow to read this, having not died in a fire.  In 512 million adult nights in uk hotels (ignoring kids) 1 person died from a fire in their own bedroom in a hotel. So as far as risk to people currently from fire in their bedroom the maths is clear.

Stop for puerile arguements. Point extinguished. Returning home station.

[CivvyFSO]

Now you are many times safer in a hilton than at clevey towers. How much safer. Well you cant take 5 years and then one year and divide by two alas for civvy.

What on earth are you on about?

In 512 million adult nights in uk hotels (ignoring kids) 1 person died from a fire in their own bedroom in a hotel.

First of all, you initially mentioned that we spend 100 million nights a year in hotels. Where does the 512 million now come from? In those 512 million nights how many people died from a fire, whether in their room, in a corridor, outside on the pavement or later in a hospital bed?

You are looking at a total number of deaths in dwellings attributed to fire, and then looking at a specific scenario for hotels. You are simply trying to twist statistics to say what you want. Your point would be semi-relevant if I was facing you arguing for an upgrade of an existing fire door, but I am questioning your comment on the chance of dying in a hotel fire (by whatever means) as opposed to dying in a fire in your own home.

Stop for puerile arguements. Point extinguished. Returning home station.

Re-ignition occurred 12:50pm. Visible flames.

[colin todd]

it is 100 million, but to try to find a death for you i took 5 years and still only found one in the room of fire origin.

[CivvyFSO]

The number of deaths in the room of origin has no relevance to the point being made. All you are doing is recycling an old argument for warranting HD in bedrooms.

[jokar]

NO argument about HD in bedrooms, the BS recommends them.  You either follow the BS or follow something else.  It is not a cut and paste job.

[CivvyFSO]

It is in the BS because it is warranted. It is warranted due to the very argument that Mr Todd puts forward, I do not dispute that. But thanks for missing the point.

[colin todd]

See Civvy a wee comma makes all the difference to meaning sometimes. I was not in the least interested in the hd/sd arguement. Always willing to assist those who have not enjoyed the delights of the old crash gear box on a Dennis, I took the trouble nto search specially for you 5 years data on any death that had occurred anywhere within the confines of a hotel or boarding house as a result of a bedroom fire, so that I might find for you any relevant information on intumescent strips and smoke seals. Happily or regrettably according to how you view it I could only find one death, which happened to be in the room of origin. No one at all died beyond the bedroom.

A cooma would have made this clearer, so I reproduce the text again, with the offending comma in place.

it is 100 million, but to try to find a death for you i took 5 years and still only found one   ,   in the room of fire origin.

[CivvyFSO]

It seems clear to me that you are cherry picking the best years to suit your argument. (Just as I did originally, which you quite rightly corrected me on.

it is funny that you should stop at the 5 year mark. I am guessing you are working from UK Fire Statistics, and if so, going just 1 year past that 5 year mark there are another 3 deaths to add. Also, if you take the entire 11 year stretch from UK statistics there is a total of 8 deaths, and those deaths are only the ones attributed to deliberate fires. That is also ignoring the 3 deaths (minimum) last year, and anything to come from 2007.

If we assume (for arguments sake) that 2007 had no deaths, and that 2008 had just the 3 deaths, then we can look over the course of 13 years, and we have 11 deaths. Again, only the ones attributed to deliberate fires. (I do not know why stats for accidental fires are not included but I shall work with the information available)

Let me repeat the maths for you:

11 deaths over 13 years gives 0.84 deaths per year. (in deliberate fires only).

100,000,000 nights spent in hotels per year gives: 100,000,000/0.84 = 1 in 120,000,000 chance of dying (due to a deliberate fire) in a hotel room in any one night spent in a hotel.

Maybe you are approximately twice as likely to die in your own home, which is quite a considerable difference to your claim that you are 10 times as likely to die in your own home.