Hi kurnal,
Yes, you're right. All the fancy calculations and fire modelling amount to....
....well, that's the question. Are they reasonable estimates or are they just nonsense?
I try to have a little faith and think that if they are used conservatively then they can present best estimates and can tend to indicate that a building might be safe. As you have pointed out, they are not always used conservatively.
If we chuck away all the fire engineering guidance and modelling techniques we have because we don't trust the people using them, then we have nothing, so I think we have no choice but to continue to have a little faith...
There are people who know that the modelling techniques are merely best guesses and who therefore use them and handle them with caution, openness and honesty, and there are others who don't care about the accuracy of the predictions and manipulate them to suit their needs. Telling the difference between the two approaches is often very difficult for an enforcing authority.
Look at weather forecasting. They have some of the biggest computers in the world with the most complex modelling techniques and they can't get yesterday right. Predicting fire and smoke behaviour is not so fraught with difficulties as weather prediction but it is still subject to many variable inputs, many of which are difficult to determine. I don't think we'll ever get it right, I don't think it's possible, but at least some of the good guesses can get nearer to the truth. I think we should, for the time being, adhere to what we know is reasonably foreseeable when making predictions and temper the outcomes of our predictions with some common sense.