Just off the top of my head, I think 1 in 14,000,000 is the chances of winning the jackpot in the National Lottery. I think the figure quoted by the sprinkler industry for accidental actuation of sprinklers is 1 in 16,000,000. But it doesn't matter what the figure is precisely, what matters is what this statistic actually refers to. I understand that it is the rate of accidental sprinkler bulb failure. In other words, what it is saying is that sprinkler bulbs virtually never fail just of their own accord.
What you're talking about, Wiz, is the accidental discharge of sprinkler systems through some accidental damage, other than simple bulb failure (e.g. a fork lift truck impacting with the pipework or a head). This is, of course, much more frequent than the highly infrequent bulb failure. It is a little misleading of the sprinkler industry to bandy this almost irrelevant statistic of 1 in 16,000,000 around, but I understand their motivation.
There are figures for accidental discharges of sprinkler installations and associated damage statistics and yes, they do cause a bit of damage when they go off and this is not insignificant. However, it is not at all likely to happen in any building and it is not common.
There is a human trait known as 'availability error' that is built into all of us and cannot be avoided. Thousands of sprinkler systems sit there inertly, doing nothing (but ready), unnoticed, nobody paying them any attention. But then a sprinkler head is hit by a fork lift truck in a building somewhere and this is causes a bit of damage and we all hear about it and, maybe, see the cctv images on Youtube and develop a strong image in our mind of the incident. The images and circumstances of this incident are 'available' to us much more than all the thousands of systems where this does not happen and we cannot help but form an impression that the incident is much more likely than it actually is.
Information that is 'available' is always given much more weight by our tiny little brains than it merits. Think about the real risks associated with air travel or fun fare rides and compare that with common perception of the risks.
Going back to sprinklers, the issue of cost benefit has already been discussed in this thread. The best way to determine if sprinklers should be fitted (if not for life safety requirements) is through cost benefit analysis. The results of this will vary with every building. There has been much study of this in the last few years and there is plenty of reading out there for those who want to pursue this. Look to the BRE/CLG for a start.
Here's a thing, imagine if our culture was such that every house in the country has a sprinkler installation. Houses are full of plumbing anyway, it would only be a few more pipes (could the sprinklers even possibly come off the same installation that supplies domestic cold water throughout the house?)(yes). How many people would die because of fire in such a world? I think such a culture would save hundreds of lives every year. Now tell me that sprinklers are bad.
Stu